Amazon dieback:
how climate change and deforestation threaten food security
As a leading UK food procurement organisation, allmanhall take social and environmental responsibility seriously. We work with clients to understand the risks climate change poses to food systems, supply chains, and budgets. By sharing insights on issues like Amazon dieback, we aim to inform, educate, and empower caterers to make more sustainable, resilient choices.
The Amazon rainforest is a crucial asset in the fight against climate change. Its extraordinary biodiversity and immense capacity to absorb carbon dioxide make it essential to planetary health. Yet every year, logging, mining, beef production, and other pressures chip away at this vital ecosystem. Scientists warn that if deforestation and climate impacts pass a critical threshold, the Amazon may tip irreversibly into a drier, savannah-like state – a phenomenon known as Amazon dieback. The consequences for food security and supply chains could be profound.
allmanhall’s Sustainability Manager, Richard Dowling, digs into the facts…
What is Amazon dieback?
The Amazon Basin, spanning nine countries (around 60% in Brazil) represents the world’s largest nature-based solution to fight global warming. However, at least 15% of it has already been cleared, with a further 17% degraded by human activity, including under-canopy extraction, fires, and logging. When these strains accumulate, the rainforest’s ability to recover from fires or droughts declines, pushing it towards dieback.
Amazon dieback exemplifies a climate tipping point – a threshold beyond which small changes can trigger rapid, self-reinforcing shifts. Other examples include ice sheet melt, permafrost thaw, ocean current changes, and coral reef collapse.
If the Amazon reaches a stage where its climate tipping point is exceeded, the rainforest would be too dry to carry out its normal ecological functions, leading to increased temperatures and reduced rainfall.
Such a scenario becomes more likely as rates of climate change and deforestation increase – the loss of trees reduces moisture recycling and cooling, leading to higher local temperatures. The dying forest would also release large amounts of stored carbon, alter weather patterns across South America, and begin to lose its ability to sequester carbon – turning what was once a carbon sink into a carbon source.
Global warming increases the risk of Amazon dieback
Research has shown that exceeding the lower temperature threshold of the Paris Agreement of 1.5°C significantly raises the risk of Amazon dieback – a threat many scientists now consider inevitable. As climate change intensifies, positive feedback loops (less moisture recycling, more fires, more heat) reinforce the danger.
However, recent research confirms that the rainforest is more resilient to climate change than was previously thought. Undisturbed tropical vegetation continues to act as an effective carbon sink despite rising temperatures and strong droughts. But this doesn’t mean we can become complacent, as the Amazon Basin remains under threat from fires and deforestation.
How much deforestation is too much?
For 65 million years, the Amazon rainforest has weathered natural climate shifts with remarkable resilience. But today, it’s facing an entirely new kind of pressure – one that is man-made and accelerating. Relentless deforestation, prolonged droughts, and fires are increasing the risk of Amazon dieback and pushing the world’s largest rainforest towards a dangerous tipping point.
What makes this situation particularly alarming is the emergence of positive feedback loops – self-reinforcing cycles that not only intensify climate change but also disrupt the Amazon’s delicate ecosystem dynamics. These changes carry serious economic risks if they trigger widespread ecosystem collapse.
Local activities like logging significantly contribute to Amazon dieback. Logging weakens canopy resilience, increases the risk of fire, disrupts vital ecological processes, and alters microclimates. Even reduced impact logging causes biodiversity loss, with several studies reporting notable reductions in species richness even in areas of low-level timber extraction.
Scientists estimate that losing 20–25% of the forest could trigger irreversible change. Parts of the Amazon could shift to grassy savannah, which is inhospitable to rainforest species. Already, 17% has been deforested, which is dangerously close to this threshold.
Further research into ecological tipping points is needed. Understanding the full picture is critical, especially since many climate models fail to fully account for feedback mechanisms, raising serious concerns about the adequacy of current emissions reduction strategies.
Livestock and agriculture:
Agriculture is the single largest driver of Amazon dieback. Half of the Earth’s habitable land is already used for farming, with 80% of that dedicated to grazing livestock or growing feed crops.
In the Amazon, much of the land cleared is used for soy – but only 7% of soy is eaten by humans. A huge 77% is fed to livestock, fuelling global meat and dairy production.
In fact, cattle farming and soy are the biggest drivers of deforestation. This is a global problem, including in the UK, as British farm animals are fed soy grown in deforested areas of the Amazon. This is alongside their very high greenhouse gas footprint.
This is why reducing meat and dairy consumption is a prerequisite to dealing with climate change, as most deforestation is driven by growing soy to feed to chickens and pigs, as well as for expanding pastures for beef. Also, most of the beef produced by Brazil through cattle ranching is exported, as demand is so high.
The impact is stark: a football pitch’s worth of forest is cleared every six seconds. Beef is a particular culprit, requiring vast pastures and releasing large amounts of methane – a greenhouse gas over 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide in the short term.
As journalist and author Michael Grunwald memorably puts it: “When you eat a burger, you’re not just eating a cow. You’re eating macaws and jaguars and the rest of the cast of Rio. You’re eating the Amazon. You’re eating the Earth.”
Meeting Paris Agreement goals means livestock emissions must decline by 61% by 2036, meaning global demand for meat and dairy must reduce. This isn’t about guilt, but about recognising the scale of our impact and making conscious food choices.
Why the Amazon matters for food security
Climate change, nature loss and food insecurity are all inextricably linked. Dealing with them in isolation won’t work. The Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) warns that siloed policies, like increasing food production at the cost of polluting rivers, can undermine long- term resilience.
Supply chain disruption: Reduced rainfall and shifting growing seasons threaten the stability of crops like soy, maize and staple commodities such as coffee and cocoa.
Rising costs: Falling yields drive up prices for basic foods, squeezing budgets, particularly in food-heavy sectors like hospitality and catering.
Climate risk exposure: Businesses reliant on consistent agricultural inputs must build resilience into supply chains to withstand the risks linked to Amazon degradation.
Solutions and mitigation strategies
There are reasons for hope. Brazil’s government has pledged to end Amazon deforestation by 2030 and is taking a firmer stance against the country’s powerful agricultural lobby. It plans to expand payments for ecosystem services (PES) and enforce the Forest Code, which requires landowners to preserve and restore native forest.
History shows progress is possible. During Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s first presidency, deforestation rates fell by 75% only to rise under Jair Bolsonaro. With Lula back in office, hopes are high that environmental progress can once again gain momentum.
Globally, initiatives like REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation), formalised in the Paris Agreement and governed under the UNFCCC, provide financial incentives for reducing emissions from deforestation. Although implementation has faced some challenges, REDD+, which focuses on cutting emissions, promoting sustainable forest management, and enhancing carbon stocks, represents an important international mechanism for forest conservation.
Indigenous lands: a key safeguard
Indigenous communities are crucial defenders of the Amazon. Granting and enforcing collective property rights has been proven to cut levels of deforestation, since protected land blocks clearing and burning.
Beyond carbon, safeguarding Indigenous forests brings public health benefits by reducing air pollution from forest fires. Studies have linked this protection to lower rates of respiratory and cardiovascular illness in nearby populations, thanks to the decline in smoke and particulate matter.
Protecting Indigenous land is therefore both a matter of social justice and a strategic tool for climate and health policy.
Why urgency matters
The upcoming COP30 provides a pivotal opportunity to put the Amazon at the centre of global climate negotiations, despite America’s absence. The Amazon is edging closer to a critical tipping point, and how the world responds now will shape climate outcomes for generations.
Land use change, including deforestation, already contributes up to 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions, making deforestation one of the most cost-effective mitigation strategies.
If the Amazon is lost, the consequences will be felt far beyond South America. Global food security will be threatened, and economic stability undermined, as ecosystems falter and supply chains come under strain. Addressing deforestation is therefore essential.
Getting started with sustainable change
Climate and food are deeply interconnected. From how ingredients are grown to how they reach the plate, every choice has an impact on our planet and on food security. The good news? Small steps, taken collectively, can drive meaningful change.
Sustainable swaps that make a difference
Choosing sustainable ingredients doesn’t just support the planet – it can also transform menus and budgets. Examples include:
- Plant-rich alternatives: A beef burger generates around 5.77 kg CO₂e, while allmanhall’s Brighter Burger produces just 0.34 kg CO₂e – a 94% reduction
- Hero Recipes: Practical, budget-friendly dishes designed to maximise flavour, nutrition, and sustainability.
- Innovative protein solutions: The Eat Curious range, made from just three ingredients (pea protein, fava bean protein, and salt) has a carbon footprint of just over 1 kg CO₂e/kg – far lower than animal proteins.
Empowering better choices with carbon labelling
Through our partnership with Foodsteps, caterers can assess the carbon impact of recipes, track improvements, and engage diners with transparent ratings and labels. This helps embed sustainability across communities.
Designing out waste, building resilience
By reducing waste and rethinking resources, food systems become more resilient, sustainable, and cost-effective. From cutting waste to shifting protein choices, each action contributes to long-term, meaningful change.
Leading the way in sustainable food systems
allmanhall are proud to be recognised for our commitment to sustainable food procurement:
- Best Sustainable Food Procurement Solution – five years running
- EcoVadis Gold rating, placing us in the top 2% of businesses globally
These awards reflect the tangible results we deliver: helping clients across the UK reduce waste, source responsibly, and achieve measurable sustainability goals.
Our approach combines transparency, collaboration, and real outcomes – from consolidated billing with full visibility to hands-on menu support.
🎥 Watch our video to learn more about how allmanhall is driving sustainable, responsible food procurement.
Ready to take the next step?
The Amazon is a reminder that our food choices have global consequences. By working with allmanhall, you can make sourcing decisions that protect ecosystems, reduce emissions, and build resilience into your catering.
👉 Contact us today to explore how our award-winning solutions can support your sustainability goals.