Food price forecast
What to expect
The high price of food and limited availability of fresh produce continues to grab headlines. Poor weather conditions in North Africa and Spain and high energy prices are leading to empty fresh produce shelves in supermarkets. This is particularly impacting salads, tomatoes and peppers.
The twelve-month ONS CPI data for January 2023 reports food and non-alcoholic drinks inflation at a very stubborn 16.7%. This is still much higher than overall general CPI inflation of 10.1%.
The Food Foundation, who independently measure food inflation via a ‘Basic Basket’ have reported that food inflation has increased by approximately ’17 to 22%’ since March 2022.
Here at allmanhall our expectation for the short term is that food inflation will remain at tenaciously high levels. We forecast these to be well above the five-year average. But we anticipate this will see the rate of inflation gradually falling over the next twelve months. This will be as the effects of high energy costs and lower global food costs feed through the supply chain.
It is important to distinguish that in the short run, food inflation is expected to remain problematic. Despite the ‘rate’ of inflation falling, immediate marketplace inflation is still historically high and this will impact food prices.
At allmanhall we are continuing to notify our clients or supplier price increase proposals. We are actively working to negotiate them down and are updating you regarding price increase mitigations as they are achieved.
To find out more, please don’t hesitate to contact us here – now more than ever, the support of a procurement expert managing these complexities on your behalf is an essential support for food service operations.
For more information on food prices and inflation, read these blogs: