The seafood supply chain: how warming seas are reshaping menus and the future of foodservice
Overview
Last year, fishermen along parts of England’s south coast began noticing something unusual. Instead of hauling up pots full of crabs and lobsters, many found them packed with Mediterranean octopus – a species not traditionally found in UK waters.
The trend has continued into 2026. As our seas warm, researchers are recording a growing presence of species including octopus, Atlantic bluefin tuna and mauve stinger jellyfish in waters where they have historically been far less common. Sardines and anchovies are appearing further north, while some cold-water species are gradually shifting away from their traditional habitats.
As an example, the marine heatwave this summer is strongest off the coasts of eastern and southern England, where sea temperatures are reaching 4–5°C above average in some areas.
The oceans are changing. So is our seafood.
Climate change isn’t just raising sea levels – it’s changing what’s living beneath the surface.
Sea temperatures are increasing, marine heatwaves are becoming more frequent and lasting longer, and ocean chemistry is changing. Fish respond by following the environmental conditions they need to survive.
According to Seafish, these changes will influence almost every stage of the seafood supply chain, from harvesting and processing through to transport, pricing and consumer demand. Climate change is expected to increase volatility, making seafood availability less predictable and requiring the industry to become far more adaptable.
The effects are already being felt around the UK.
Cornwall Wildlife Trust has warned that record-breaking sea temperatures are placing growing pressure on marine ecosystems, including shellfish populations, seagrass habitats, and commercially important species. These habitats underpin the health of our seas, making their resilience critical for the future of sustainable seafood.
Meanwhile, researchers at the University of Southampton have developed pioneering techniques to predict how Atlantic bluefin tuna populations will respond as ocean warming accelerates. Their work suggests the species will continue shifting northwards, highlighting just how rapidly climate change is redrawing the map of marine life.
The seafood landscape is changing. The question is: are our menus changing quickly enough?
A seafood supply chain under pressure
For decades, foodservice has relied upon a relatively small number of familiar species – cod, haddock, salmon, prawns, sea bass.
They’ve become menu staples because they’re versatile, reliable, and widely accepted by consumers.
But as oceans change, the assumption that these species will always remain plentiful, affordable, and sustainable is becoming increasingly difficult to make.
Fish don’t recognise national boundaries. They follow water temperature, food availability, and suitable breeding conditions. As populations move, fishing fleets often need to travel further, quotas evolve, operating costs rise, and availability becomes more variable.
Climate change isn’t acting in isolation, either.
Labour shortages, energy costs, fuel prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and changing consumer demand are all placing additional pressure on seafood supply chains.
The latest market insight from Direct Seafoods demonstrates that these pressures are already affecting purchasing decisions. Heat-related mortality has reduced production of Mediterranean sea bass and gilthead bream, while salmon prices continue to be influenced by biological constraints and strong global demand.
As a result, buyers are increasingly being encouraged to consider alternative species, with fish such as meagre emerging as viable substitutes for more traditional choices.
The biggest lesson? Buying needs to become more flexible.
From buying fish to managing risk
Choosing seafood is becoming less about buying fish and more about managing risk.
For catering teams, future success will depend upon balancing cost, availability, sustainability, and resilience. You may increasingly find yourselves asking:
- Are we too dependent on one or two key species?
- Which fisheries are best placed to remain sustainable over the long term?
- Which alternative species could offer comparable nutrition and quality?
- How quickly can menus adapt when availability changes?
Building resilience into the seafood supply chain may prove just as valuable as getting the lowest price.
Tomorrow's seafood menu could look very different
Climate change is unlikely to remove seafood from our menus.
It is far more likely to diversify them.
Species that have traditionally been underutilised in UK foodservice, such as hake, coley, megrim and sardines, may become increasingly important as operators look beyond the familiar.
Shellfish also deserves greater attention.
Farmed mussels are among the most environmentally efficient sources of animal protein available. They require no feed, naturally filter seawater and can contribute positively to healthy marine ecosystems while providing high-quality nutrition.
Seaweed, too, is beginning to move beyond niche status. Already used in seasonings, snacks and plant-based products, it offers a highly sustainable ingredient that requires no freshwater, fertiliser or agricultural land.
Plant-based seafood is no longer a niche category. From fish fillets and tuna to prawns and fish fingers, the range of alternatives continues to grow, giving caterers more options than ever before.
While these products won’t replace seafood altogether, they can play an important role alongside responsibly sourced fish. By reducing reliance on a small number of wild species, they can help build more resilient menus while supporting broader sustainability ambitions. In many cases, plant-based seafood alternatives also have a lower environmental footprint, requiring fewer natural resources and producing fewer greenhouse gas emissions than conventional seafood.
The future of the seafood supply chain may not be about choosing between fish and plant-based alternatives – it may be about finding the right balance between the two.
Preparing for the next generation of seafood
Climate change won’t simply alter where fish are caught. It will reshape what you buy, what you serve, and how you plan our menus.
The organisations best placed to succeed won’t necessarily be those buying the cheapest seafood. They’ll be the ones building a resilient seafood supply chain, embracing a wider range of species, and using procurement insight to stay ahead of changing markets.
The seafood shift has already begun. The question for catering teams isn’t whether change is coming – it’s whether you’re ready to adapt.